Ice loss in the European Alps until 2050 using a fully assimilated,
deep-learning-aided 3D ice-flow model
Abstract
Modelling the short-term (<50 years) evolution of glaciers is
difficult because of issues related to model initialisation and data
assimilation. However, this timescale is critical, particularly for
water resources, natural hazards, and ecology. Using a unique record of
satellite remote-sensing data, combined with a novel optimisation and
SMB-calculation method within the framework of the deep-learning-based
Instructed Glacier Model, we are able to resolve initialisation issues.
We thus model the evolution of all glaciers in the European Alps up to
2050 under present-day climate conditions, assuming no future climate
change. We find that the resulting committed ice loss exceeds a third of
the present-day ice volume by 2050, with multi-kilometre frontal
retreats for even the largest glaciers. Our results show the importance
of modelling ice dynamics to accurately retrieve the ice-thickness
distribution and to predict future mass changes. Thanks to
high-performance GPU processing, we also demonstrate our method’s global
potential.