Heat and drought events are increasing in frequency and intensity, posing significant risks to natural and agricultural areas with uncertain effects on the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). We modified the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model to include soil moisture impacts on the gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) and respiration (RECO) fluxes and determine the temporal variability of NEE over south-western Europe for 2001-2022. Warming temperatures lengthen growing seasons causing an increase in GEE which is mostly compensated by a similar increment in RECO, resulting in a modest annual increase of net carbon sink of 0.80 gC/m2year but with high spatial and annual variability. The heatwave of 2022 reduced NEE by 78.5 TgC, a 27% decrease from the mean. The interannual variability is more influenced by drought in temperate humid regions than in Mediterranean semi-arid regions. These results emphasize the vulnerability of the net carbon sink as drying trends could revert the NEE trends, as it is happening for croplands in the French Central Massif.

Given that more than half of the world’s population currently resides in cities, further understanding of the potential impact of future climate change on urban areas is needed. In this regard, we project recent heatwave (HW) episodes in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB) with future climate conditions until 2100 using the pseudo global warming (PGW) method. First, we determine all the HWs that occurred in the AMB during the last climatological period of 30 years (1991-2020) and simulate each individual event using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at high-resolution. Then, these historical HW events are re-simulated with the modified atmospheric conditions of the mid-century (2041-2070) and the end-of-the-century (2071-2100) according to the scenario SSP370, in which CO2 emissions are projected to almost double from current levels by 2100 following a low emission reduction scenario. HW intensity is expected to increase by 2.5 °C and 4.2 °C in the mid- and end-of-the-century periods, respectively. Higher temperatures are related to stationary and stable synoptic patterns, which are projected to experience the greatest intensification in the future. The geopotential height at 500 hPa could increase up to 100 geopotential meters (gpm) by the end of the century, leading to values up to 6050 gpm, which indicates changes in thermodynamic and dynamic effects resulting in potentially warmer HW episodes. The results obtained can aid in understanding the expected changes for this century, which could facilitate the formulation of heat mitigation and adaptation strategies, particularly for the most exposed areas.

Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is used to quantify the carbon capture potential of the biosphere because of its direct correlation with CO2 uptake during photosynthesis. However, to constrain the urban biosphere signal, it is necessary to evaluate potential anthropogenic sources. We conducted two sampling campaigns in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB), Spain, during May (full COVID lockdown) and October 2020 to measure the spatial distribution and variability of OCS in four urban land uses as follows: built, urban forest, urban park, and peri-urban agriculture. The OCS background levels determined at Tibidabo (442 m asl) were approximately 484 ±20 ppt and 407 ±8 ppt for May and October 2020, respectively, and agreed with other seasonal surveys conducted in Europe during that same period. The urban values ranged from neutral to above background, suggesting nearby anthropogenic and marine emissions such as +D150 ppt in Montjuic, which is downwind of Barcelona’s harbor. During the crop-growing season in May, the agricultural areas consistently showed values below the background (uptake) at 7:00 UTC when the land breezes were dominant, while later in the morning, when the sea breeze are developed, the plant sink is masked by the transport of marine emissions. Urban forests located north of Tibidabo showed OCS values up to -D70 ppt, suggesting significant uptake by urban forests. We conclude that determining the urban biosphere signal using OCS as a tracer is more complex than expected because the marine and anthropogenic emissions from the port strongly impact the spatial-temporal distribution of OCS.