Abstract
Weather features, such as extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers
(ARs), and fronts, contribute to substantial amounts of precipitation
globally and are associated with different precipitation
characteristics. However, future changes as well as the representation
of the precipitation characteristics associated with these weather
features in climate models remain uncertain. We attribute 6-hourly
accumulated precipitation and cyclones, moisture transport axes (AR-like
features), fronts, and cold air outbreaks, and the combinations thereof
in 10 ensemble members of the CESM2-LE between 1950 and 2100 under the
SSP3-7.0 scenario. We find that, despite some biases in both
precipitation and weather features, CESM2-LE adeptly represents the
precipitation characteristics associated with the different combinations
of weather features. The combinations of weather features that
contribute most to precipitation in the present climate also contribute
the most to future changes, both due to changes in intensity as well as
frequency. While the increase in precipitation intensity dominates the
overall response for total precipitation in the storm track regions, the
precipitation intensity for the individual weather features does not
necessarily change significantly. Instead, approximately half of the
increase in precipitation intensity in the storm track regions can be
attributed to a higher occurrence of the more intensely precipitating
combinations of weather features, such as the co-occurrence of
extratropical cyclones, fronts, and moisture transport axes.