Fig. 4. Projected change in annual outdoor days in the United States. a) Spatial distribution of normalized change in annual outdoor days in 2071-2100 with respect to 1976-2005, derived from 30 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs under SSP1-2.6 scenario (top left) and 32 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs under SSP5-8.5 scenario (top right). Superimposed hatching in a) indicates that more than 80% of models agree on the sign of the change. b) Time series of annual outdoor days for nine sub-regions derived from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs under SSP1-2.6 (blue lines) and SSP5-8.5 (red lines) scenarios. Thick solid line in b) indicates an ensemble mean of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models. Difference (2071–2100 minus 1976–2005) in the number of annual outdoor days is represented in each plot. The p-value for the linear trend is based on the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test.