The potential of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 column CO2
measurements to constrain air-sea CO2 fluxes
Abstract
This study explores an optimal inversion strategy for assimilating the
Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) column-averaged atmospheric CO2
concentration (XCO2) observations to constrain air-sea CO2 fluxes. The
performance of different inversion set-ups is evaluated through
Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) by comparing the
optimized fluxes with assumed true fluxes. The results indicate that the
conventional inversion, simultaneously optimizing terrestrial biosphere
and air-sea fluxes, reduces root mean square errors (RMSEs) in regional
monthly air-sea fluxes by up to 22–24% and 6–10% in the low
(<40°) and high (>40°) latitudes, respectively, with
up to 22% error reduction in global annual air-sea fluxes. These
limited adjustments are associated with an order of magnitude higher
variability of terrestrial biosphere fluxes compared to the air-sea
fluxes. To isolate ocean signals within XCO2 variations, we employ a
sequential inversion, first optimizing terrestrial biosphere fluxes with
land XCO2 data and then optimizing air-sea fluxes with ocean XCO2 data
while prescribing the optimized terrestrial biosphere fluxes. This
approach achieves an 11% additional error reduction in global annual
air-sea fluxes and a 33% further RMSE reduction in monthly air-sea
fluxes in the southern high latitudes. However, we find that potential
biases (+0.2 ppm) in ocean XCO2 measurements over this region could
induce a 24% RMSE increase despite the application of sequential
inversion. Our results show that sequential inversion is a promising
technique for improving seasonal air-sea flux estimates in the Southern
Ocean but mitigation of OCO-2 measurement biases is required for
practical applications.