Accelerated Historical and Future Warming over the Middle East and North
Africa in Response to the Global Temperature Change
Abstract
The global average temperature has increased significantly since the
preindustrial era. Translating global warming into regional scales is
crucial to formulate effective environmental and climate policies. A
realistic assessment of regional climate change requires high-resolution
datasets. We present a new high-resolution (9 km) analysis of historical
and future regional warming over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
using observations, reanalysis products, and statistically downscaled
global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP) Phase 5 and 6. The observed regional temperature change over the
MENA subregions appears to be up to three times faster than the global
average. Regional warming has already surpassed the 1.5 ℃ and is at the
brink of exceeding 2 ℃. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian
Peninsula will warm from 2.66 ± 0.57 to 7.61 ± 1.53 ℃ under the low
(SSP1–2.6) and high-end (SSP5–8.5) emission scenarios, respectively.
We identify spatially distinct summer and winter warming hotspots. The
most prominent spots in summer are the Arabian Peninsula Hotspot Region
(APHR) and Algerian Hotspot Region. Major winter hotspots appear over
Mauritania in West Arica and the Elburz Mountains. Moreover, APHR has
already exceeded 2 °C of warming and will warm by about 9 °C under the
high-end emission scenario by the end of the century. The 1.5, 2, 3, and
4 ℃ global warming levels are associated with substantial regional
warming of 2.1 ± 0.2, 2.76 ± 0.2, 4.19 ± 0.25, and 5.49 ± 0.38 ℃,
respectively, over the Arabian Peninsula.