Magma pressure drop as a forecasting tool for the end of the 2021 La
Palma eruption (Canary Islands)
Abstract
Accurate forecasting eruptive activity is a core challenge in
volcanology. Here, we describe an end of eruption forecast during the
2021 La Palma eruption using continuous GNSS geodetic data. We observed
that co-eruptive deflation resembled a quasi-exponential trend and used
it to forecast when deflation would cease equating to when the eruption
would end. The forecast was done within the eruption, however was not
operational due to large uncertainty in the unknown pressure dropt
threshold needed to stop magma upflow. In hindcast, we explore minimum
datasets needed and how forecast uncertainty reduces with increase in
ingested data. We conclude that forecasts could be possible after the
time-scale around the e-folding time of the exponential decay and quite
accurate ones after twice that time-scale. Our results also indicate
that the eruption was controlled by the dynamics of a Moho depth
reservoir beneath Cumbre Vieja volcano.