Abstract
East Asia (China, Japan, Koreas and Mongolia) has been the world’s
economic engine over at least the past two decades, exhibiting a rapid
increase in fossil fuel emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has
expressed the recent ambition to achieve climate neutrality by
mid-century. However, the GHG balance of its terrestrial ecosystems
remains poorly constrained. Here, we present a synthesis of the three
most important long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) budgets
over East Asia during the decades of 2000s and 2010s, following a dual
constraint bottom-up and top-down approach. We estimate that terrestrial
ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs, with a magnitude
of between 196.9 ± 527.0 Tg CO2eq yr-1 (the top-down approach) and -20.8
± 205.5 Tg CO2eq yr-1 (the bottom-up approach) during 2000-2019. This
net GHG emission includes a large land CO2 sink (-1251.3 ± 456.9 Tg CO2
yr-1 based on the top-down approach and -1356.1 ± 155.6 Tg CO2 yr-1
based on the bottom-up approach), which is being fully offset by
biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions, predominantly coming from the
agricultural sector. Emerging data sources and modelling capacities have
helped achieve agreement between the top-down and bottom-up approaches
to within 20% for all three GHGs, but sizeable uncertainties remain in
several flux terms. For example, the reported CO2 flux from land use and
land cover change varies from a net source of more than 300 Tg CO2 yr-1
to a net sink of ~-700 Tg CO2 yr-1.