A Bayesian model for inferring total solar irradiance from proxies and
direct observations: application to the ACRIM Gap
Abstract
Differences among total solar irradiance (TSI) estimates are most
pronounced during the so-called “ACRIM Gap” of 1989–1991, when
available satellite observations disagree in trend and no observations
exist from satellites with on-board calibration. Different approaches to
bias-correcting noisy satellite observations lead to discrepancies of up
to 0.7 W/m2 in the change in TSI during the Gap. Using a Bayesian
hierarchical model for Total Solar Irradiance (BTSI), we jointly infer
TSI during the ACRIM Gap from satellite observations and proxies of
solar activity. In addition, BTSI yields estimates of noise and drift in
satellite observations and calibration for proxy records. We find that
TSI across the ACRIM Gap changes by only 0.01 W/m2, with a
95% confidence interval of [-0.07, 0.09] W/m2. Our
results are consistent with the PMOD CPMDF and Community Consensus TSI
reconstructions and inconsistent with the 0.7 W/m2 trend reported in the
ACRIM composite reconstruction. Constraints on the trend across the
ACRIM Gap are primarily obtained through constraints on the drift in the
Nimbus-7 satellite that are afforded by overlapping satellite and proxy
observations.