CMIP6 projections of future MJO changes under steepened moisture
gradient conditions over the Indo-Pacific warm pool
Abstract
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has remarkable impacts on global
weather and climate systems. Understanding its changes under a warming
climate provides insights into how MJO-related phenomena may change
accordingly. This study examines the future changes in MJO projected by
23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models that
produce a realistic MJO propagation in their historical runs. Results
from the multi-model mean show a ~17% increase in MJO
precipitation amplitude, a ~9% increase in propagation
speed, a ~2-day decrease in MJO period, and a
~5° eastward extension. Analysis of the lower
tropospheric moisture budget suggests the dominant role of an increased
meridional advection of mean moisture caused by the steepening of mean
moisture over the Indo-Pacific warm pool in a warming climate. This
leads to a stronger positive moisture tendency to the east of MJO
convection, and hence a more eastward MJO propagation with strengthened
amplitude and faster speed.