The time it takes for an ecosystem to recover is a key aspect of
environmental disturbance. Conventionally, recovery is defined as a
return to the pre-disturbance state, assuming ecosystem stationarity.
However, this view does not account for the impact of external forces
like climate change. We propose a counterfactual approach, viewing
recovery as the state the ecosystem would achieve without the
disturbance. This redefines recovery time as the period until the
ecosystem reaches its counterfactual state. Through a case study on the
greening of the Arctic and Boreal regions, we present evidence
demonstrating significant disparities between counterfactual and
conventional recovery time estimates. The well-documented greening of
the region serves as an external force, introducing non-stationary
dynamics that result in a counterfactual recovery time twice as long as
the conventional view. We advocate for embracing the counterfactual
definition of recovery, as it aligns more realistically with informed
decision-making.