The Influence of Stress Release on the Spatial and Magnitude
Distribution of Subsequent Earthquakes
Abstract
Determining when and where the next big earthquake will occur is a
fundamental challenge in earthquake forecasting. Although it is
reasonable to assume that the next major earthquake will occur in
regions where stress has been increased by previous events, the most
common and reliable earthquake forecasting models assume that the
magnitude of next earthquakes is independent from what happen before
and, implicitly, from the stress state. In this study, we investigate
the correlation between stress distribution and the occurrence of large
earthquakes using a realistic physical model. Our findings reveal that
the next big earthquake is more likely to occur on the periphery of
previous large earthquakes, where stress has accumulated but not yet
been relaxed. Additionally, we explore how stress redistribution
influences the magnitude distribution of aftershocks. These results can
inform the introduction of correlations between large earthquakes in
existing seismic forecasting models, potentially enhancing their
accuracy and reliability.