Constraining historical earthquake sequences with Coulomb stress models:
an example from western Turkey
Abstract
Knowledge of earthquake source faults is crucial to calculate robust
Coulomb stress models. However, source faults are often poorly
constrained, especially for pre-instrumental events, and these historic
earthquakes are commonly studied with little or no consideration of
other nearby events. We introduce an approach using Coulomb Stress
Transfer (CST) modelling to investigate historical earthquake sequences
and constrain possible source faults. Using historical and instrumental
records from western Turkey, we create an ensemble of earthquake
sequences featuring multiple rupture scenarios for individual
earthquakes, and model both coseismic and interseismic CST. We filter
and evaluate the models based on criteria to gain knowledge on historic
earthquakes and their source faults and assess the current stress state
and related seismic hazard of the investigated fault network. The
results provide further constraints on the source faults of several
historic earthquakes, and therefore can be used to refine historic
earthquake studies from a novel perspective.