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Constraining historical earthquake sequences with Coulomb stress models: an example from western Turkey
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  • Manuel Diercks,
  • Zoe K Mildon,
  • Sarah Jean Boulton,
  • Ekbal Hussain
Manuel Diercks
University of Plymouth

Corresponding Author:manuel-lukas.diercks@plymouth.ac.uk

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Zoe K Mildon
University of Plymouth
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Sarah Jean Boulton
University of Plymouth
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Ekbal Hussain
British Geological Survey
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Knowledge of earthquake source faults is crucial to calculate robust Coulomb stress models. However, source faults are often poorly constrained, especially for pre-instrumental events, and these historic earthquakes are commonly studied with little or no consideration of other nearby events. We introduce an approach using Coulomb Stress Transfer (CST) modelling to investigate historical earthquake sequences and constrain possible source faults. Using historical and instrumental records from western Turkey, we create an ensemble of earthquake sequences featuring multiple rupture scenarios for individual earthquakes, and model both coseismic and interseismic CST. We filter and evaluate the models based on criteria to gain knowledge on historic earthquakes and their source faults and assess the current stress state and related seismic hazard of the investigated fault network. The results provide further constraints on the source faults of several historic earthquakes, and therefore can be used to refine historic earthquake studies from a novel perspective.
30 Mar 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
04 Apr 2023Published in ESS Open Archive