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\begin{document}

\title{Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models}



\author[1]{Jonathan A. Baker}%
\author[1]{Mike J. Bell}%
\author[1]{Laura C. Jackson}%
\author[1]{Richard Renshaw}%
\author[2]{Geoffrey K. Vallis}%
\author[2]{Andrew J. Watson}%
\author[1]{Richard A. Wood}%
\affil[1]{Met Office}%
\affil[2]{University of Exeter}%


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  \date{May 08, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Future projections indicate the AMOC will weaken and shoal in response
to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of
weakening. We analyse projected AMOC weakening in 27 CMIP6 climate
models, in terms of changes in three return pathways of the AMOC. The
branch of the AMOC that returns through diffusive upwelling in the
Indo-Pacific, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean, is
particularly sensitive to warming, in part, because shallowing of the
deep flow prevents it from entering the Indo-Pacific via the Southern
Ocean. The present-day strength of this Indo-Pacific pathway provides a
strong constraint on the projected AMOC weakening. However, estimates of
this pathway using four observationally-based methods imply a wide range
of AMOC weakening under the SSP5-8.5 scenario of 29\% to 61\% by 2100.
Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this
pathway would substantially reduce uncertainty in 21st century AMOC
decline.%
\end{abstract}%



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