Leonurus japonicus
Under the three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios in the
future, high humidity and high temperature will expand the distribution
range of the suitable area of Leonurus japonicus to the north.
Compared with the current suitable area, the 2050s shows a significant
decrease, which is significantly greater than the decrease of 2090s,
i.e., the decreasing trend of the suitable area of Leonurus
japonicus will decrease, and the response to climate change was most
sensitive under the ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios. Under the ssp126
scenario, the distribution of suitable areas for L. japonicusincreased significantly, indicating that sustainable development has an
important impact on biological growth and reproduction and the
improvement of the ecological environment. Under different economic path
change scenarios in the future, the response of the spatial pattern of
the suitable area of L. japonicus to the change is generally
consistent, i.e., with the increase of climate warming, the overall
migration of the spatial location of the suitable area of L.
japonicus becomes greater. When the shared socio-economic path is the
same, except for the geometric center point of the 2090s suitable area
under the ssp585 scenario, under the low-moderate socio-economic paths,
the geometric center of the 2090s L. japonicus suitable area
shows a trend of northward migration compared with the 2050s, and the
migration distance is the largest under the ssp245-2090s scenario. The
migration trend of Leonurus japonicus is consistent with the
migration of species to high latitudes under the background of global
warming (Liu et al., 2022).
4.4. Priority protection zoning of Leonurus japonicus
This study shows that the priority protection zones of L.
japonicus in China are in the southwest of central China, south of the
Five Ridges, south of eastern China, and Guizhou Province. The priority
protected areas of national key protected medicinal plant species have a
large area and a concentrated distribution in the southern mountains
(Xie et al., 2022). This part of the region has suitable climate, light,
and temperature conditions for the growth and development of most
medicinal plants. In addition, the intensity of human intervention in
mountainous areas is also relatively low, so the biodiversity in these
areas is extremely rich. The prediction results are consistent with the
above situation and are more accurate.
5. Conclusions
The default parameters of the model were optimized in this study. The
results showed that the feature combination of the optimal model was
fragmented, and the control rate was 1.5. The complexity of the
optimized model was low; the response curve became smooth; the
prediction results were consistent with the actual results; and the
prediction accuracy was high. The suitable area of L. japonicusin China is widely distributed in the current period. Under different
scenarios of shared economic paths in the future, except for the
increase of the suitable area of L. japonicus in ssp126 in the
2090s, the suitable area of L. japonicus in the other scenarios
shows a downward trend; the suitable area of Leonurus japonicusin the middle and low latitudes decreases, and the decrease will
gradually increase. The effect is most sensitive under the ssp245 and
ssp585 scenarios. In the context of different economic paths, there was
no significant niche differentiation between the future and current
suitable growing regions of L. japonicus . Therefore, the priority
protected areas of L. japonicus should be set in the southwest of
central China, the Lingnan area, the south of eastern China, and Guizhou
Province.