Leonurus japonicus
Under the three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios in the future, high humidity and high temperature will expand the distribution range of the suitable area of Leonurus japonicus to the north. Compared with the current suitable area, the 2050s shows a significant decrease, which is significantly greater than the decrease of 2090s, i.e., the decreasing trend of the suitable area of Leonurus japonicus will decrease, and the response to climate change was most sensitive under the ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios. Under the ssp126 scenario, the distribution of suitable areas for L. japonicusincreased significantly, indicating that sustainable development has an important impact on biological growth and reproduction and the improvement of the ecological environment. Under different economic path change scenarios in the future, the response of the spatial pattern of the suitable area of L. japonicus to the change is generally consistent, i.e., with the increase of climate warming, the overall migration of the spatial location of the suitable area of L. japonicus becomes greater. When the shared socio-economic path is the same, except for the geometric center point of the 2090s suitable area under the ssp585 scenario, under the low-moderate socio-economic paths, the geometric center of the 2090s L. japonicus suitable area shows a trend of northward migration compared with the 2050s, and the migration distance is the largest under the ssp245-2090s scenario. The migration trend of Leonurus japonicus is consistent with the migration of species to high latitudes under the background of global warming (Liu et al., 2022).
4.4. Priority protection zoning of Leonurus japonicus
This study shows that the priority protection zones of L. japonicus in China are in the southwest of central China, south of the Five Ridges, south of eastern China, and Guizhou Province. The priority protected areas of national key protected medicinal plant species have a large area and a concentrated distribution in the southern mountains (Xie et al., 2022). This part of the region has suitable climate, light, and temperature conditions for the growth and development of most medicinal plants. In addition, the intensity of human intervention in mountainous areas is also relatively low, so the biodiversity in these areas is extremely rich. The prediction results are consistent with the above situation and are more accurate.
5. Conclusions
The default parameters of the model were optimized in this study. The results showed that the feature combination of the optimal model was fragmented, and the control rate was 1.5. The complexity of the optimized model was low; the response curve became smooth; the prediction results were consistent with the actual results; and the prediction accuracy was high. The suitable area of L. japonicusin China is widely distributed in the current period. Under different scenarios of shared economic paths in the future, except for the increase of the suitable area of L. japonicus in ssp126 in the 2090s, the suitable area of L. japonicus in the other scenarios shows a downward trend; the suitable area of Leonurus japonicusin the middle and low latitudes decreases, and the decrease will gradually increase. The effect is most sensitive under the ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios. In the context of different economic paths, there was no significant niche differentiation between the future and current suitable growing regions of L. japonicus . Therefore, the priority protected areas of L. japonicus should be set in the southwest of central China, the Lingnan area, the south of eastern China, and Guizhou Province.