Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under Global
Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach
Abstract
This study aims to assess the impact of global warming on intense TCs
over the western North Pacific (WNP) through a dynamical downscaling
approach. 379 and 179 TCs reaching Category 1 in the High-Resolution
Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) are downscaled for use in the Weather Research
and Forecasting model at 5-km horizontal resolution in the current
climate (1979-2015) and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5
(RCP8.5) future climate (2074-2100) scenarios, respectively. Inclusion
of the downscaling simulations helps better reproduce the probability
distribution of the TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). In the warmer
climate, the top 30 and top 5 % WNP TCs in LMI are projected to be
stronger. Such an increase in intensity is statistically significant,
and can be primarily explained by enhanced intensification rate (IR).
Meanwhile, TCs among the top 5% in LMI can reach higher intensities
which cannot be attained in the current climate. After downscaling, the
probability of WNP TCs reaching Category 4-5 increases by 6.5 % in the
late 21th century, which is 1.7 % higher as compared to the increase
projected exclusively by HiRAM. Moreover, for TCs among the top 5 % in
LMI, a 233-km and 300-km westward shift of LMI locations is identified
in the late 21st century, for simulations with and without applying the
downscaling approach, respectively. Both results suggest that very
intense TCs would pose a higher threat to the WNP lands under global
warming, as they become substantially stronger, and with their LMI
locations migrating toward the coast.