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Climate-dependency of Impact of Increased Carbon Dioxide on African Monsoon Rainfall: Insights from model simulations
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  • Xiaoxu Shi,
  • Martin Werner,
  • Francesco S.R. Pausata,
  • Jiping Liu,
  • Roberta D'Agostino,
  • Yongyun Hu,
  • Hu Yang,
  • Hang Wang,
  • Chao-Yuan Yang,
  • Gerrit Lohmann
Xiaoxu Shi
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Francesco S.R. Pausata
University of Quebec in Montreal
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Jiping Liu
Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
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Roberta D'Agostino
Italian National Research Council
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Yongyun Hu
Peking University
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Hu Yang
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory - Zhuhai
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Hang Wang
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University
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Chao-Yuan Yang
Southern Marine Science And Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (zhuhai)
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Gerrit Lohmann
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Previous studies on future scenarios identified two key effects of increasing CO2 on the African summer monsoon (ASM): Rising CO2 leads to an enhancement in moisture supply, favoring an increase in ASM precipitation (the thermodynamic effect). However, it also results in a weakening in mean atmospheric flow, thus facilitating a dryness across the ASM region (the dynamic effect). Therefore, the ultimate change in ASM precipitation stems from the balance of both the thermodynamic and dynamic effects. This study further examines the impact of rising CO2 on ASM rainfall, by taking into account various climate states. Our results suggest that an increase in CO2 during warm interglacial periods has a stronger influence from thermodynamic factors than from dynamic factors, resulting in an enhancement in ASM rainfall. In contrast, if CO2 increases under cold glacial climate backgrounds, its dynamic impact dominates a reduction of rainfall in the ASM region.
14 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
15 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive