Increased importance of cool-water fish at high latitudes emerges from
individual level responses to warming
Abstract
1. High latitude ecosystems are experiencing the most rapid warming on
earth, expected to trigger a diverse array of ecological responses.
Climate warming affects the ecophysiology of fish, and fish close to the
cold end of their thermal distribution are expected to increase somatic
growth from increased temperatures and a prolonged growth season, which
in turn affects maturation schedules, reproduction and survival,
boosting population growth. Accordingly, fish species living in
ecosystems close to their northern range edge should increase in
numerical importance and possibly displace cold-water adapted species.
2. We aim to document if and how population level effects of warming
mediated by individual level responses to increased temperatures, shift
community structure and composition in high latitude ecosystems. 3. We
studied 11 cool-water adapted freshwater fish populations in communities
dominated by cold-water adapted species to investigate changes in the
relative importance of cool-water fish during the last 30 years of rapid
warming in high latitude lakes. In addition, we studied the individual
level responses to warming to clarify the potential mechanisms
underlying the population effects. 4. Our long-term series‘ (1991-2020)
reveal a marked increase in numerical importance of the cool-water fish
species, perch, in ten out of eleven populations, and in most fish
communities the cool-water species is now dominant. Moreover, we show
that climate warming affects population level processes via direct and
indirect temperature effects on the individuals. Specifically, the
increase in abundance arises from increased survival of 0+ individuals,
faster juvenile growth and ensuing earlier maturation, all boosted by
climate warming. 5. The speed and magnitude of the response to warming
in these high latitude fish communities strongly suggest that cold-water
fish will be displaced by fish adapted to warmer water. Consequently,
management should focus on climate adaptation limiting future
introductions and invasions of cool-water fish and mitigating harvesting
pressure on cold-water fish.