Development of an Epidemic-type Aftershock-sequence Model Explicitly
Incorporating the Seismicity-triggering Effects of Slow Slip Events
Abstract
Slow slip events (SSEs) at subduction zone plate boundaries sometimes
trigger earthquake swarms and megathrust earthquakes. The causal
relationship between SSEs and seismicity has been studied worldwide, but
the epidemic-type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, which is a standard
statistical model of seismicity, does not explicitly consider the
seismicity-triggering effect of SSEs. Therefore, if an SSE occurs at a
plate boundary, probabilistic earthquake forecasts based on the ETAS
model fail to predict observed seismicity. Here, we constructed a
statistical model named the SSE-modulated ETAS model by incorporating
SSE moment rates estimated from observation data from the global
navigation satellite system into the original ETAS model. Our model
assumes a linear or power-law relationship between the SSE moment rates
and seismicity rates and estimates its proportionality constant as a new
ETAS parameter. We applied this new model to three SSEs and M 2.5 or
greater earthquakes in the shallow part of the Hikurangi Trench, New
Zealand. The results show that it is better than the original ETAS
model, giving a significant reduction in the Akaike information
criterion. In addition, we examined the functional forms (e.g., lag time
and power exponent) of the equation relating the moment rate of the SSEs
to the seismicity rate. The results imply that, in addition to
SSE-induced stress changes, crustal fluid migration may be related to
SSE-induced seismicity. We also examine the influence of SSEs on
aftershock productivity. Our model can improve short-term forecasts of
seismicity associated with SSEs and is useful for quantifying
characteristics of the seismicity.