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Impacts of Forced and Internal Climate Variability on Changes in Convective Environments Over the Eastern United States
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  • Megan Elizabeth Franke,
  • James Wilson Hurrell,
  • Kristen Rasmussen,
  • Lantao Sun
Megan Elizabeth Franke
Colorado State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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James Wilson Hurrell
Colorado State University
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Kristen Rasmussen
Colorado State University
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Lantao Sun
Colorado State University
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Abstract

Hazards from convective weather pose a serious threat to the continental United States (CONUS) every year. Previous studies have examined how future projected changes in climate might impact the frequency and intensity of severe weather using simulations with both convection-permitting regional models and coarser climate and Earth system models. However, many of these studies have been limited to single representations of the future climate state with little insight into the uncertainty of how the population of convective storms may evolve. To thoroughly explore this aspect, a large ensemble of Earth system model simulations was implemented to investigate how forced responses in large-scale convective environments might be modulated by internal climate variability. Daily data from an ensemble of 50 simulations with the most recent version of the Community Earth System Model was used to examine changes in the severe weather environment over the eastern CONUS during boreal spring from 1870-2100. Results indicate that forced changes in convective environments were small between 1870 and 1990, but throughout the 21st century, convective available potential energy and atmospheric stability (convective inhibition) is projected to increase while 0-6 km vertical wind shear decreases. Internal climate variability can either significantly enhance or suppress these forced changes. The time evolution of bivariate distributions of convective indices illustrates that future springtime convective environments over the eastern CONUS will be characterized by relatively less frequent, less organized, but deeper, more intense convection. Future convective environments will also be less supportive of the most severe convective modes and associated hazards.
21 Jan 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
24 Jan 2023Published in ESS Open Archive