Abstract
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific is the
dominant mode of global air-sea CO2 flux interannual
variability (IAV). Air-sea CO2 fluxes are driven by the
difference between atmospheric and surface ocean pCO2,
with variability of the latter driving flux variability. Previous
studies found that models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
5 (CMIP5) failed to reproduce the observed ENSO-related pattern of
CO2 fluxes and had weak pCO2 IAV, which
were explained by both weak upwelling IAV and weak mean vertical DIC
gradients. We assess whether the latest generation of CMIP6 models can
reproduce equatorial Pacific pCO2 IAV by validating
models against observations-based data products. We decompose
pCO2 IAV into thermally and non-thermally driven
anomalies to examine the balance between these competing anomalies,
which explain the total pCO2 IAV. The majority of CMIP6
models underestimate pCO2 IAV, while they overestimate
SST IAV. Thermal and non-thermal pCO2 anomalies are not
appropriately balanced in models, such that the resulting
pCO2 IAV is too weak. We compare the relative strengths
of the vertical transport of temperature and DIC and evaluate their
contributions to thermal and non-thermal pCO2 anomalies.
Model-to-observations-based product comparisons reveal that modeled mean
vertical DIC gradients are biased weak relative to their mean vertical
temperature gradients, but upwelling acting on these gradients is
insufficient to explain the relative magnitudes of thermal and
non-thermal pCO2 anomalies.