Abstract
We use the United Kingdom Earth System Model simulations from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 to analyse the dynamics of the
Ross Gyre, West Antarctica, under historical and projected
climate-change scenarios. During the historical period, the modelled
Ross Gyre is relatively stable, with an extent and strength that are in
reasonable agreement with observations. The projections exhibit an
eastward gyre expansion into the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas that
starts during the 2040s. The associated cyclonic ocean circulation
enhances the onshore transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the
eastern Amundsen Sea, a regime change that increases the subsurface
shelf temperatures by up to 1.2◦C and is independent of future forcing
scenario. The Ross Gyre expansion is generated by a regional surface
stress curl intensification associated with anthropogenic forcing. If
realised in reality, such a warming would strongly influence the future
stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.