The short and long-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on
the prevalence of varicella in Xi'an during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract
Varicella is a highly prevalent infectious disease with a similar
transmission pathway to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In the
context of the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs) have been implemented to prevent the spread of the
infection. This study aims to analyze varicella’s epidemiological
characteristics and further investigate the effect of anti-COVID-19 NPIs
on varicella in Xi’an, northwestern China. Based on the varicella
surveillance data, search engine indices, meteorological factors from
2011 to 2021 in Xi’an, and different levels of emergency response to
COVID-19 during the pandemic, we applied Bayesian Structural Time Series
models and interrupted time series analysis to predict the
counterfactual incidence of varicella and quantify the impact of varying
NPIs intensities on varicella. From 2011 to 2021, varicella incidence
increased, especially in 2019, with a high incidence of 111.69/100,000.
However, there was a sharp decrease of 43.18% in 2020 compared with
2019, and the peak of varicella incidence in 2020 was lower than in
previous years from the 21st to the 25th week. In 2021, the seasonality
of varicella incidence gradually returned to a seasonal pattern in
2011-2019. The results suggest that anti-COVID-19 NPIs effectively
reduce the incidence of varicella, and this reduction has spatiotemporal
heterogeneity.