Enhancing Synthetic Rating Curve Development Through Empirical Roughness
Built for Hydrofabric Datasets
Abstract
Rating curves are commonly developed through direct observation, open
channel flow models, or mechanical methods, each relying on in-situ
measurement. As part of a U.S. effort to provide high resolution,
continental scale, flood mapping, synthetic rating curves (SRCs) were
developed across the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlusV2) to
translate flows, like those generated by the NOAA National Water Model,
into river depths. This approach uses Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to
define the necessary cross-sectional properties for Manning’s equation.
A significant limitation, alongside an opportunity for broad
improvement, has been assigning suitable roughness without local
information. We applied the DEM based methodology to generate SRCs at
7,270 locations with known USGS rating curves, and calibrated roughness
to minimize the error between predicted and observed flow. Subsequently,
we tested several approaches based on land cover, stream order, and the
hydrographic network to estimate the optimized values in a manner that
can be extended to ungauged catchments. Among these, a predictive
Machine Learning (ML) model based on the NHDPlusV2 network attributes
demonstrated superior ability to estimate the optimized roughness with a
Spearman correlation of 0.89. Sensitivity analysis showed improving
accuracy of DEM and roughness is crucial for accurate estimation of the
lower and mid/upper parts of SRC, respectively. Finally, we applied the
predictive model over the NHDPlusV2, generating reach-level roughness
estimates that can directly support national flood mapping efforts. The
method is generalizable to any hydrofabric network that contains
topology, however the generated values are dependent on the DEM and
hydrofabric used.