Dynamic Rupture Scenarios of the Cascadia Megathrust based on
Interseismic Locking Models
Abstract
The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest has
well-documented geological records of megathrust earthquakes with the
most recent Mw 9 rupture occurring in 1700 A.D. The paleoseismic
observations suggest that Southern Cascadia is mature for future
earthquakes since the last event. Consequently, it is crucial to
investigate the potential rupture scenarios. Various interseismic
locking models are developed along Cascadia, including offshore
uncertainties and different material assumptions. Although they all
share similar moment deficits, whether future earthquakes may rupture
the entire margin or be segmented, as found in the paleoseismic records,
remains unknown. Accordingly, we aim to investigate: (1) possible
rupture segmentation patterns, (2) whether south Cascadia can host
margin-wide ruptures, and (3) whether the existing locking models
suggest similar future rupture scenarios. We estimate the stress
distribution constrained by the locking models from static calculation
and discover that they lead to different stress distributions,
indicating distinct seismic potentials despite their similar moment
deficits. Our dynamic rupture scenarios show that the south can generate
both segmented ruptures (> Mw 7.3 - 8.4) and margin-wide
ruptures (> Mw 8.6) depending on hypocenter locations. The
extent of Schmalzle-based segmented scenarios matches the proposed
historical segmented events, and the margin-wide scenarios are well
consistent with the coastal subsidence records of 1700 A.D. Therefore,
we propose that three high-slip trench-breaching patches are sufficient
for reproducing historical subsidence records. Our reasonable dynamic
simulations can be applied in future studies for assessing seismic and
tsunami hazards, and also serve as a comparison for non-trench-breaching
scenarios.