Abstract
Much of the world’s water resource infrastructure was designed for
specific regional snowmelt regimes under the assumption of a stable
climate. However, as climate continues to change, this infrastructure is
experiencing rapid regime shifts that test design limits. These changing
snowmelt cycles are responsible for extreme hydrologic events occurring
across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), such as river flooding from
rain-on-snow, which puts infrastructure and communities at risk. Our
study uses a new spatial snow regime classification system to track
climate driven changes in snow hydrology across CONUS over 40 years
(1981 – 2020). Using cloud-based computing and reanalysis data, regime
classes are calculated annually, with changes evaluated across decadal
and 30-year normal time scales. The snow regime classification
designates areas across CONUS as: (1) rain dominated (RD), (2) snow
dominated (SD), (3) transitional (R/S), or (4) perennial snow (PS).
Classifications are thresholded using a ratio of maximum snow water
equivalent (SWE) over accumulated cool-season precipitation, with a
comparison of two approaches for selecting maximum SWE. Results indicate
that average snow cover duration generally became shorter in each decade
over our evaluation period, with rates of decline increasing at higher
elevations. Anomalies in SD spatial extents, compared to the 30-year
normal, decreased over the first three decades, while anomalies in RD
extents increased. Also, previously SD areas have shifted to R/S, with
boundary lines moving up in latitude. As water managers adapt to a
changing climate, geospatial classification, such as this snow regime
approach, may be a critical tool.