Abstract
Optimising short-term load forecasting performance is a challenge due to
the randomness of nonlinear power load and variability of system
operation mode. The existing methods generally ignore how to reasonably
and effectively combine the complementary advantages among them and fail
to capture enough internal information from load sequence, resulting in
accuracy reduction. To achieve accurate and efficient short-term load
forecasting, an integral implementation framework is proposed based on
convolutional neural network (CNN), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and
channel attention mechanism. CNN and GRU are first combined to fully
extract the complicated dynamic features and learn the time compliance
relationship of load sequence. Based on CNN-GRU network, the channel
attention mechanism is introduced to further reduce the loss of
historical information and enhance the impact of important features.
Then, the overall framework of short-term load forecasting based on
CNN-GRU-Attention network is proposed, and the coupling relationship
between each designed stage is revealed. Finally, the developed
framework is implemented on one realistic load dataset of distribution
networks, and the experimental results verify the proposed method
outperforms the state-of-the-art models in common metrics.