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Physics-based dynamic rupture models, fault interaction and ground motion simulations for the segmented Húsavík-Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland
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  • Bo LI,
  • Alice-Agnes Gabriel,
  • Thomas Ulrich,
  • Claudia Abril,
  • Benedikt Halldorsson
Bo LI
Ludwig-Maximilians-University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Alice-Agnes Gabriel
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
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Thomas Ulrich
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
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Claudia Abril
Icelandic Meteorological Office
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Benedikt Halldorsson
University of Iceland
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Abstract

We present 3-D spontaneous dynamic rupture earthquake scenarios for the Húsavík–Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) in Northern Iceland. We construct three fault system models consisting of up to 55 segments of varying geometric complexity. By varying hypocenter locations, we analyze rupture dynamics, fault interactions and their associated ground motions and observational uncertainties in 79 scenarios. We use regional observations to constrain 3-D subsurface velocities and viscoelastic attenuation as well as fault stress and strength. Our models account for topo-bathymetry, off-fault plasticity and we explore the effect of fault roughness. Our spontaneous dynamic rupture scenarios can match historic magnitudes. We show that the fault system segmentation and geometry, hypocenter locations, initial stress conditions and fault roughness have strong effects on multi-fault rupture dynamics across the HFFZ. Breaking of different portions of the same fault system leads to varying rupture dynamics, slip distributions and magnitudes. All dynamic rupture scenarios yield highly heterogeneous near-field ground motions. We observe amplification from rupture directivity, geometric complexities, and amplification and shielding due to topography. We recover a magnitude-consistent attenuation relationship in good agreement with new regional empirical ground motion models. Physics-based ground motion variability changes with distance and increases for unilateral vs. bilateral rupture. Our study illustrates important ingredients for fully physics-based, regional earthquake scenarios, their respective importance for rupture dynamics and ground motion modeling and how they can be observationally constrained and verified. We entail that dynamic rupture scenarios can be useful for non-ergodic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, specifically in data-limited regions.