Compensatory Effects between CO2, Nitrogen Deposition, and Temperature
in Terrestrial Biosphere Models without Nitrogen Compromise Projections
of the Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink
Abstract
The strength of CO2 fertilisation is a major uncertainty across
terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and is suggested to be overestimated
without a representation of nitrogen (N) limitation. Here, we compare
TBM projections with and without coupled C and N cycling over
alternative future scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to
examine how representing N cycling influences CO2 fertilisation as well
as the effects of a comprehensive group of physical and socioeconomic
global change drivers. Because elevated N deposition and N
mineralisation (driven by elevated temperature) have stimulated
terrestrial C sequestration over the historical period, a TBM without N
cycling must exaggerate the strength of CO2 fertilisation to compensate
for these unrepresented N processes and to reproduce the historical
terrestrial C sink. As a result, it cannot reliably project the future
terrestrial C sink, overestimating CO2 fertilisation as CO2 increases
faster than N deposition and temperature in future scenarios.