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A new method for predicting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation δ 18 O based on deep learning and spatial and temporal clustering
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  • Yang Li,
  • Siyuan Huo,
  • Bin Ma,
  • Jie Lv,
  • Bingbing Pei,
  • Qiankun Tan,
  • Qing Guo,
  • Deng Wang,
  • Longbiao Yu
Yang Li
Yangtze University
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Siyuan Huo
Yangtze University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Bin Ma
China University of Geosciences
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Jie Lv
Wuhan Municipal People's Government
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Bingbing Pei
Yangtze University
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Qiankun Tan
Yangtze University
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Qing Guo
Changjiang Water Resources Commission
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Deng Wang
Yangtze University
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Longbiao Yu
Yangtze University
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Abstract

Predicting precipitation δ 18O accurately is crucial for understanding water cycles, paleoclimates, and hydrological applications. Yet, forecasting its spatio-temporal distribution remains challenging due to complex climate interactions and extreme events. We developed a method combining spatio-temporal clustering and deep learning neural networks to improve multi-site, multi-year precipitation δ 18O predictions. Using a comprehensive dataset from 33 German sites (1978-2021), our model considers precipitation δ 18O and its controlling factors, including precipitation and temperature distribution. We applied the K-means++ method for classification and divided data into training and prediction sets. The CNN[1](#fn-0002) model extracted spatial features, while the Bi-LSTM model focused on temporal features. Spatio-temporal clustering using K-means++ improved forecast accuracy and reduced errors. This study highlights the potential of deep learning and clustering techniques for forecasting complex spatio-temporal data and offers insights for future research on isotope distributions.