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Profiles of Operational and Research Forecasting of Smoke and Air Quality Around the World
  • +37
  • Susan M. O'Neill,
  • Peng Xian,
  • Johannes Flemming,
  • Martin Cope,
  • Alexander Baklanov,
  • Narasimhan K. Larkin,
  • Joseph K. Vaughan,
  • Daniel Tong,
  • Rosie Howard,
  • Roland Stull,
  • Didier Davignon,
  • Ravan Ahmadov,
  • M. Talat Odman,
  • John Innis,
  • Merched Azzi,
  • Christopher Gan,
  • Radenko Pavlovic,
  • Boon Ning Chew,
  • Jeffrey S. Reid,
  • Edward Hyer,
  • Zak Kipling,
  • Angela Benedetti,
  • Peter R. Colarco,
  • Arlindo Da Silva,
  • Taichu Tanaka,
  • Jeffrey McQueen,
  • Partha Bhattacharjee,
  • Jonathan Guth,
  • Nicole Asencio,
  • Oriol Jorba,
  • Carlos Perez Garcia-Pando,
  • Rostislav Kouznetsov,
  • Mikhail Sofiev,
  • Melissa E. Brooks,
  • Jack Chen,
  • Eric James,
  • Fabienne Reisen,
  • Alan Wain,
  • Kerryn McTaggart,
  • Angus MacNeil
Susan M. O'Neill
USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Peng Xian
US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, USA
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Johannes Flemming
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Reading, UK
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Martin Cope
CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, VIC, AUS
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Alexander Baklanov
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, CH
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Narasimhan K. Larkin
USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
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Joseph K. Vaughan
Washington State University
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Daniel Tong
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
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Rosie Howard
The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CAN
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Roland Stull
The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CAN
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Didier Davignon
Environment and Climate Change Canada
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Ravan Ahmadov
CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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M. Talat Odman
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
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John Innis
EPA Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, AUS
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Merched Azzi
New South Wales Department of Planning Industry and Environment, Sydney, NSW, AUS
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Christopher Gan
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, SG
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Radenko Pavlovic
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, CAN
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Boon Ning Chew
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, SG
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Jeffrey S. Reid
US Naval Research Laboratory
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Edward Hyer
US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, USA
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Zak Kipling
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Reading, UK
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Angela Benedetti
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Reading, UK
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Peter R. Colarco
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Arlindo Da Silva
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
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Taichu Tanaka
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, JP
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Jeffrey McQueen
NOAA NCEP, College Park, MD, USA
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Partha Bhattacharjee
I.M. Systems group at NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, USA
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Jonathan Guth
Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, FR
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Nicole Asencio
Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, FR
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Oriol Jorba
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, ES
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Carlos Perez Garcia-Pando
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, ES
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Rostislav Kouznetsov
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric Composition Unit, Helsinki, FI
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Mikhail Sofiev
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric Composition Unit, Helsinki, FI
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Melissa E. Brooks
Met Office, Exeter, UK
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Jack Chen
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, CAN
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Eric James
CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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Fabienne Reisen
CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, VIC, AUS
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Alan Wain
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, AUS
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Kerryn McTaggart
Victoria Department of Environment Land Water and Planning, Melbourne, VIC, AUS
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Angus MacNeil
Forest Practices Authority, Hobart, TAS, AUS
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Abstract

Biomass burning has shaped many of the ecosystems of the planet and for millennia humans have used it as a tool to manage the environment. When widespread fires occur, the health and daily lives of millions of people can be affected by the smoke, often at unhealthy to hazardous levels leading to a range of short-term and long-term health consequences such as respiratory issues, cardiovascular issues, and mortality. It is critical to adequately represent and include smoke and its consequences in atmospheric modeling systems to meet needs such as addressing the global climate carbon budget and informing and protecting the public during smoke episodes. Many scientific and technical challenges are associated with modeling the complex phenomenon of smoke. Variability in fire emissions estimates has an order of magnitude level of uncertainty, depending upon vegetation type, natural fuel heterogeneity, and fuel combustion processes. Quantifying fire emissions also vary from ground/vegetation-based methods to those based on remotely sensed fire radiative power data. These emission estimates are input into dispersion and air quality modeling systems, where their vertical allocation associated with plume rise, and temporal release parameterizations influence transport patterns, and, in turn affect chemical transformation and interaction with other sources. These processes lend another order of magnitude of variability to the downwind estimates of trace gases and aerosol concentrations. This chapter profiles many of the global and regional smoke prediction systems currently operational or quasi-operational in real time or near-real time. It is not an exhaustive list of systems, but rather is a profile of many of the systems in use to give examples of the creativity and complexity needed to simulate the phenomenon of smoke. This chapter, and the systems described, reflect the needs of different agencies and regions, where the various systems are tailored to the best available science to address challenges of a region. Smoke forecasting requirements range from warning and informing the public about potential smoke impacts to planning burn activities for hazard reduction or resource benefit. Different agencies also have different mandates, and the lines blur between the missions of quasi-operational organizations (e.g. research institutions) and agencies with operational mandates. The global smoke prediction systems are advanced, and many are self-organizing into a powerful ensemble, as discussed in section 2. Regional and national systems are being developed independently and are discussed in sections 3-5 for Europe (11 systems), North America (7 systems), and Australia (3 systems). Finally, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) effort (section 6) is bringing together global and regional systems and building the Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Advisory and Assessment Systems (VFSP-WAS) to support countries with smoke issues and who lack resources.
13 Nov 2023Published in Landscape Fire, Smoke, and Health on pages 149-191. 10.1002/9781119757030.ch9