Profiles of Operational and Research Forecasting of Smoke and Air
Quality Around the World
Abstract
Biomass burning has shaped many of the ecosystems of the planet and for
millennia humans have used it as a tool to manage the environment. When
widespread fires occur, the health and daily lives of millions of people
can be affected by the smoke, often at unhealthy to hazardous levels
leading to a range of short-term and long-term health consequences such
as respiratory issues, cardiovascular issues, and mortality. It is
critical to adequately represent and include smoke and its consequences
in atmospheric modeling systems to meet needs such as addressing the
global climate carbon budget and informing and protecting the public
during smoke episodes. Many scientific and technical challenges are
associated with modeling the complex phenomenon of smoke. Variability in
fire emissions estimates has an order of magnitude level of uncertainty,
depending upon vegetation type, natural fuel heterogeneity, and fuel
combustion processes. Quantifying fire emissions also vary from
ground/vegetation-based methods to those based on remotely sensed fire
radiative power data. These emission estimates are input into dispersion
and air quality modeling systems, where their vertical allocation
associated with plume rise, and temporal release parameterizations
influence transport patterns, and, in turn affect chemical
transformation and interaction with other sources. These processes lend
another order of magnitude of variability to the downwind estimates of
trace gases and aerosol concentrations. This chapter profiles many of
the global and regional smoke prediction systems currently operational
or quasi-operational in real time or near-real time. It is not an
exhaustive list of systems, but rather is a profile of many of the
systems in use to give examples of the creativity and complexity needed
to simulate the phenomenon of smoke. This chapter, and the systems
described, reflect the needs of different agencies and regions, where
the various systems are tailored to the best available science to
address challenges of a region. Smoke forecasting requirements range
from warning and informing the public about potential smoke impacts to
planning burn activities for hazard reduction or resource benefit.
Different agencies also have different mandates, and the lines blur
between the missions of quasi-operational organizations (e.g. research
institutions) and agencies with operational mandates. The global smoke
prediction systems are advanced, and many are self-organizing into a
powerful ensemble, as discussed in section 2. Regional and national
systems are being developed independently and are discussed in sections
3-5 for Europe (11 systems), North America (7 systems), and Australia (3
systems). Finally, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) effort
(section 6) is bringing together global and regional systems and
building the Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Advisory and Assessment
Systems (VFSP-WAS) to support countries with smoke issues and who lack
resources.