Aerosol background concentrations influence aerosol-cloud interactions
as much as the choice of aerosol-cloud parameterization
Abstract
We use an independent observational estimate of aerosol-cloud
interactions (ACI) during the 2014 Holuhraun volcanic eruption in
Iceland to evaluate 4 ACI parameterizations in a regional model. All
parameterizations reproduce the observed pattern of liquid cloud droplet
size reduction during the eruption, but strongly differ on its magnitude
and on the resulting effective radiative forcing (ERF). Our results
contradict earlier findings that this eruption could be used to
constrain liquid water path (LWP) adjustments in models, except to
exclude extremely high LWP adjustments of more than
20 g/m2. The modeled ERF is
very sensitive to the non-volcanic background aerosol concentration:
doubling the non-volcanic aerosol background weakens the ACI ERF by
~30%. Since aerosol biases in
climate models can be an order of magnitude or more, these results
suggest that aerosol background concentrations could be a major and
under-examined source of uncertainty for modeling ACI.