The representation of sea salt aerosols and their role in polar climate
within CMIP6
Abstract
Natural aerosols and their interactions with clouds remain an important
uncertainty within climate models, especially at the poles. Here, we
study the behavior of sea salt aerosols (SSaer) in the Arctic and
Antarctic within 12 climate models from CMIP6. We investigate the
driving factors that control SSaer abundances and show large differences
based on the choice of the source function, and the representation of
aerosol processes in the atmosphere. Close to the poles, the CMIP6
models do not match observed seasonal cycles of surface concentrations,
likely due to the absence of wintertime SSaer sources such as blowing
snow. Further away from the poles, simulated concentrations have the
correct seasonality, but have a positive mean bias of up to one order of
magnitude. SSaer optical depth is derived from the MODIS data and
compared to modeled values, revealing good agreement, except for winter
months. Better agreement for AOD than surface concentration may indicate
a need for improving the vertical distribution, the size distribution
and/or hygroscopicity of modeled polar SSaer. Source functions used in
CMIP6 emit very different numbers of small SSaer, potentially
exacerbating cloud-aerosol interaction uncertainties in these remote
regions. For future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585, we show that
SSaer concentrations increase at both poles at the end of the 21st
century, with more than two times mid-20th century values in the Arctic.
The pre-industrial climate CMIP6 experiments suggest there is a large
uncertainty in the polar radiative budget due to SSaer.