Pacific decadal oscillation influences tropical oxygen minimum zone
extent and obscures anthropogenic changes.
Abstract
Observations suggest that the tropical Pacific Ocean has lost oxygen
since the 1960s leading to the expansion of its oxygen minimum zone
(OMZ). Attribution to anthropogenic forcing is, however, difficult
because of limited data availability and the large natural variability
introduced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Here, we evaluate
the PDO influence on oxygen dynamics and OMZ extent using observations
and hindcast simulations from two global ocean circulation models
(NEMO-PISCES, MOM6-COBALT). In both models, the tropical Pacific oxygen
content decreases by about 30 Tmol.decade$^{-1}$ and the OMZ
volume expands by $1.3\times10^5$
km$^3$.decade$^{-1}$ during PDO positive phases, while
variations of similar magnitude but opposite sign are simulated during
negative phases. Changes in equatorial advective oxygen supply,
partially offset by biological demand, control the oxygen response to
PDO. Observations which cover 39\% of the tropical
Pacific volume only partially capture spatio-temporal variability,
hindering the separation of anthropogenic trend from natural variations.