Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an
intermediate complexity climate model
- Jeroen Wouters,
- Reinhard K.H. Schiemann,
- Len C. Shaffrey
Reinhard K.H. Schiemann
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Author ProfileAbstract
We test the application of a rare event simulation algorithm to
accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a
climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble
method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone
realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the
intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that
the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate
probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of rare event
simulation of seasonal precipitation extremes.