The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) exerts a downscale influence on the diurnal cycle (DC) of precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC). We assess the characteristics of this downscale influence in GPM-IMERG data across the western MC, comparing the MJO cycles of daily-mean precipitation, DC amplitude, DC timing and additional diurnal characteristics. During a typical MJO event, islands and surrounding waters experience their greatest DC amplitude 2–4 days ahead of their greatest daily-mean precipitation. The MJO has a greater influence on daily-mean precipitation over water and on DC amplitude over land. Greatest DC amplitude over land leads greatest DC amplitude over surrounding waters by 3–6 days. DC timing varies systematically by MJO phase in most locations, particularly eastern Sumatra, eastern Borneo and the eastern Makassar Strait where the diurnal maximum may systematically vary in timing by over four hours. Over these regions, the diurnal maximum propagates westward before, and eastward after, the active MJO crosses the western MC. As the active MJO crosses, the diurnal maximum gets earlier across western land on large islands, and later across eastern land, creating a west–east regime divide in DC timing variability. Additional diurnal characteristics quantify further changes in the nature of the diurnal oscillation. MJO-induced changes in the diurnal timing of convective cloud cover may influence local radiation budgets. These results provide a detailed benchmark for the modulation of the DC by the MJO against which this scale interaction in models may be assessed.

Christian T. Wild

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The Dotson Ice Shelf has resisted acceleration and ice-front retreat despite high basal-melt rates and rapid disaggregation of the neighboring Crosson Ice Shelf. Because of this lack of acceleration, previous studies have assumed that Dotson is stable. Here we show clear evidence of Dotson's destabilization as it decelerates, contrary to the common assumption that ice-flow deceleration is synonymous with stability. Ungrounding of a series of pinning points initiated acceleration in the Upper Dotson in the early 2000s, which subsequently slowed ice flow in the Lower Dotson. Discharge from the tributary Kohler Glacier into Crosson increased, but non-proportionally. Using ICESat and ICESat-2 altimetry data we show that ungrounding of the remaining pinning points is linked to a tripling in basal melt rates between 2006-2016 and 2016-2020. Basal melt rates on Crosson doubled over the same period. The higher basal melt at Lower Dotson is consistent with the cyclonic ocean circulation in the Dotson cavity, which tends to lift isopycnals and allow warmer deep water to interact with the ice. Given current surface-lowering rates, we estimate that several remaining pinning points in the Upper Dotson will unground within one to three decades. The grounding line of Kohler Glacier will retreat past a bathymetric saddle by the late 2030s and merge into the Smith West Glacier catchment, raising concern that reconfiguration of regional ice-flow dynamics and new pathways for the intrusion of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water could further accelerate grounding-line retreat in the Dotson-Crosson Ice Shelf System.