Estimation of Tsunami Characteristics from Deposits: Inverse Modeling
using a Deep-Learning Neural Network
Abstract
Tsunami deposits provide information for estimating the magnitude and
flow conditions of paleotsunamis, and inverse models have potential for
reconstructing hydraulic conditions of tsunamis from their deposits. The
majority of the previously proposed models are based on oversimplified
assumptions and possess some limitations. We present a new inverse model
based on the FITTNUSS model, which incorporates nonuniform and unsteady
transport of suspended sediment and turbulent mixing. The present model
uses a deep neural network (DNN) for the inversion method. In this
method, forward model calculations are repeated for random initial flow
conditions (e.g., maximum inundation length, flow velocity, maximum flow
depth and sediment concentration) to produce artificial training data
sets of depositional characteristics such as thickness and grain size
distribution. The DNN was then trained to establish a general inverse
model based on artificial data sets derived from the forward model.
Tests conducted using independent artificial data sets indicated that
this trained DNN can reconstruct the original flow conditions from the
characteristics of the deposits. Finally, the model was applied to a
data set of 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunami deposits. The predicted results of
flow conditions were verified by the observational records at Sendai
plain. Jackknife resampling was applied to estimate the precision of the
result. The estimated results of the flow velocity and maximum flow
depth were approximately 5.4\pm0.140 m/s and
4.11\pm0.152 m, respectively after the uncertainty
analysis. The DNN shows promise for reconstruction of tsunami
characteristics from its deposits, which would help in estimating the
hydraulic conditions of paleotsunamis.