New physical implications from revisiting foreshock activity in southern
California
Abstract
Foreshock analysis promises new insights into the earthquake nucleation
process and could potentially improve earthquake forecasting.
Well-performing clustering models like the Epidemic-Type Aftershock
Sequence (ETAS) model assume that foreshocks and general seismicity are
generated by the same physical process, implying that foreshocks can be
identified only in retrospect. However, several studies have recently
found higher foreshock activity than predicted by ETAS. Here, we revisit
the foreshock activity in southern California using different
statistical methods and find anomalous foreshock sequences, i.e., those
unexplained by ETAS, mostly for mainshock magnitudes below 5.5. The
spatial distribution of these anomalies reveals a preferential
occurrence in zones of high heat flow, which are known to host
swarm-like seismicity. Outside these regions, the foreshocks generally
behave as expected by ETAS. These findings show that anomalous foreshock
sequences in southern California do not indicate a pre-slip nucleation
process, but swarm-like behavior driven by heat flow.