One Drought and One Volcanic Eruption Influenced the History of China:
The Ming Dynasty Mega-drought
Abstract
The Ming Dynasty Mega-drought (MDMD) (1637-1643) occurred at the end of
Ming Dynasty and is the severest drought event in China in the last
millennium. This unprecedented drought contributed significantly to the
collapse of the Ming Dynasty in 1644, casting profound impacts on
Chinese history. Here, the physical mechanism for the MDMD is studied.
Based on paleoclimate reconstructions, we hypothesize that this drought
was initially triggered by a natural drought event starting in 1637, and
was then intensified and extended by the tropical volcanic eruption at
Mount Parker in 1641. This hypothesis is supported by the case study of
the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Experiment archive as
well as sensitivity experiments with volcanic forcing superimposed on
natural drought events. The volcano-intensified drought was associated
with a decreased land-ocean thermal contrast, a negative soil moisture
response and a weakening and eastward retreating West Pacific
Subtropical High. Plain Language Summary The collapse of Ming Dynasty at
1644, and in turn, the historical transition from Ming Dynasty to Qing
Dynasty significantly changed the Chinese history into a long period of
conservative policy. The collapse of Ming Dynasty at 1644 is contributed
greatly by the Ming Dynasty Mega-drought (MDMD) (1637-1643). In this
study, based on paleoclimate reconstructions and climate modelling, we
show that the MDMD is triggered by a natural drought event, and is then
intensified and extended by the strong volcanic eruption at Mt. Parker
in 1641. This “superposition” mechanism of MDMD and the spatiotemporal
characteristics of this drought is reproduced by our volcanic
sensitivity experiments with volcanic forcing superimposed on natural
drought events, and the results demonstrate that the explosion of Mt.
Parker at the end of a natural drought event amplified and extended the
drought for 3 years, generating the mega-drought. The volcano-prolonged
drought is associated with the failure of EASM, which is directly caused
by the decreasing of land-ocean thermal contrast after volcanic
eruption, and indirectly influenced by negative soil moisture feedback
as well as weakening and eastward retreating of West Pacific Subtropical
High (WPSH).