Abstract
Climate mitigation can bring health co-benefits by improving air
quality. Yet, whether mitigation will widen or narrow current health
disparities remains unclear. Here we use a coupled climate-energy-health
model to assess the effects of a global carbon price on the distribution
of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and associated
health risks across an ensemble of nearly 30,000 future scenarios. We
find that pricing carbon consistently lowers the PM2.5-attributable
death rates in lower-income countries by reducing fossil fuel burning
(e.g., China and India). Since these countries are projected to have
large ageing populations, the greatest reduction in global average
PM2.5-attributable death rate is found in elderly populations, which are
more vulnerable to air pollution than the other age groups. In contrast,
the health effects in higher-income countries are more complex, because
pricing carbon can increase the emissions from bioenergy use and
land-use changes, counteracting the mortality decrease from reduced
fossil fuel burning. Mitigation technology choices and complex
interactions between age structures, energy use, and land use all
influence the distribution of health effects. Our results highlight the
importance of an improved understanding of regional characteristics and
cross-sector dynamics for addressing the interconnected challenges of
climate, health, and social inequalities.