Disaster risk reduction relies on quantitative estimates of the future
impacts and consequences of known hazard threats in order to evaluate
proposed mitigation and adaptation measures. Natural Resources Canada is
collaborating with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation on the first
ever national seismic risk assessment in Canada to inform disaster risk
reduction planning by individuals, businesses and organizations working
across all jurisdictional levels. The 2020 National Seismic Risk Model
incorporates the 6th Generation National Seismic Hazard Map, a novel
physical exposure model for the entire country, localized exposure
models based on a machine learning approach to building categorization,
and HAZUS-based earthquake building performance functions. Before
results can be transmitted to end users, the model must be validated in
a Canadian context using observations from real world disaster events or
pre-existing catastrophic risk models. This study focuses on
benchmarking the 2020 Canadian National Seismic Risk Model using shaking
intensities and physical impacts recorded from the 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually
and 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii events, and the results of a 2013
catastrophic risk assessment performed by AIR Worldwide to evaluate the
potential impact of major earthquakes in eastern Quebec and Cascadia. We
compute anticipated building damage, economic loss, and fatalities for
these benchmark scenario earthquakes using the OpenQuake engine and the
national exposure dataset. Preliminary results indicate that the model
results are largely consistent with observed or predicted impacts of
these earthquakes in Canada, after adjusting for economic and population
growth. Subsequently, we will evaluate the impact of running the
Cascadia scenario using a regional building-level exposure database
versus the national level inventory. Ultimately, this work will assess
the ability of the National Seismic Risk Assessment to reproduce
expected results, to ensure the applicability of this model in
anticipating future outcomes at the national and local level.