Abstract
Reliable estimates of occurrence probabilities of sea level extremes are
required in coastal planning (e.g. design floods) and to mitigate risks
related to flooding. Probabilities of specific extreme events have been
traditionally estimated from the observed extremes independently at each
tide gauge location. However, this approach has shortcomings. Firstly,
sea level observations often cover a relatively short historical time
period and thus contain only a small number of extreme cases (e.g.
annual maxima). This causes substantial uncertainties when estimating
the distribution parameters. Secondly, exact information on sea level
extremes between the tide gauge locations and incorporation of depen-
dencies of adjacent stations is often lacking in the analysis. A partial
remedy to these issues is to exploit spatial dependencies exhibited by
the sea level extremes. These dependencies emerge from the fact that sea
level variations are often driven by the same physical and dynamical
factors at the neighboring stations. Bayesian hierarchical modeling
offers a way to model these dependencies. The model structure allows to
share information on sea level extremes between the neighboring stations
and also provides a natural way to represent modeling uncertainties. In
this study, we use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate return
levels of annual sea level maximum in the Finnish coastal region,
located along the north-east part of the Baltic Sea. As annual maxima
are studied, we use the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as
the basis of our model. To tailor the model specifically for the target
region, spatial dependencies are modeled using physical covariates which
reflect the distinct geometry of the Baltic Sea. We illustrate the added
value of the hierarchical model in comparison to the traditional one
using the available long-term tide gauge time series in Finland. Careful
analysis of the sources of uncertainties is necessary when extrapolating
the return level estimates into the future. This work is a part of
project PREDICT (Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear
power plant safety) that supports nuclear power plant safety in Finland.