A quantitative comparison and validation of finite-fault models: The
2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake
Abstract
Large earthquakes rupture faults over hundreds of kilometers within
minutes. Finite-fault models elucidate these processes and provide
observational constraints for understanding earthquake physics. However,
finite-fault inversions are subject to non-uniqueness and substantial
uncertainties. The diverse range of published models for the
well-recorded 2011 M_w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake aptly illustrates this
issue, and details of its rupture process remain under debate. Here, we
comprehensively compare 32 finite-fault models of the Tohoku-Oki
earthquake and analyze the sensitivity of three commonly-used
observational data types (geodetic, seismic, and tsunami) to the slip
features identified. We first project all models to a realistic
megathrust geometry and a 1-km subfault size. At this scale, we observe
poor correlation among the models, irrespective of the data type.
However, model agreement improves significantly when subfault sizes are
increased, implying that their differences primarily stem from
small-scale features. We then forward-compute geodetic and teleseismic
synthetics and compare them with observations. We find that seismic
observations are sensitive to rupture propagation, such as the
peak-slip-rise time. However, neither teleseismic nor geodetic
observations are sensitive to spatial slip features smaller than 64 km.
In distinction, the synthesized seafloor deformation of all models
exhibits poor correlation, indicating sensitivity to small-scale slip
features. Our findings suggest that fine-scale slip features cannot be
unambiguously resolved by remote or sparse observations, such as the
three data types tested in this study. However, better resolution may
become achievable from uniformly gridded dense offshore instrumentation.