Statistical modeling of the space-time relation between wind and
significant wave height
Abstract
Many marine activities, such as designing ocean structures and planning
marine operations, require the characterization of sea state climate.
This study investigates the statistical relationship between wind and
sea states, considering its spatiotemporal behavior. A transfer function
is established between wind fields over the North Atlantic (predictors)
and the significant wave height (predictand) in a location in the Bay of
Biscay off the French coast. The developed method takes into
consideration both wind seas and swells by including local and global
predictors. The global predictors’ spatiotemporal structure is defined
to account for the non-local and non-instantaneous relationship between
wind and waves, using a fully data-driven approach. Weather types are
constructed using a regression guided-clustering method, and the
resulting clusters correspond to different wave systems (swells and wind
seas). Then, in each weather type, a penalized linear regression model
is fitted between the predictor and the predictand. The validation
analysis proves the model’s skill in predicting the significant wave
height (RMSE = 0.27m); furthermore, the interpretability of the model is
discussed.