Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement
goals out of reach
Abstract
Addressing questions of equitable contributions to emission reductions
is important to facilitate ambitious global action on climate change
within the ambit of the Paris Agreement. Several large developing
regions with low historical contributions to global warming have a
strong moral claim to a large proportion of the remaining carbon budget.
However, this claim needs to be assessed in a context where the
remaining carbon budget consistent with the Long-Term Temperature Goal
(LTTG) of the Paris Agreement is rapidly diminishing. Here we assess the
potential tension between the moral claim to the remaining carbon space
by large developing regions with low per capita emissions, and the
collective obligation to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Based
on scenarios underlying the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report, we construct a
suite of scenarios that combine the following elements: (i) two
quantifications of a moral claim to the remaining carbon space by South
Asia, and Africa, (ii) a “highest possible emission reduction” effort
by developed regions, and (iii) a corresponding range for other
developing regions. We find that even the best effort by developed
regions cannot compensate for a unilateral claim to the remaining carbon
space by South Asia and Africa. This would put the LTTG firmly out of
reach unless other developing regions cede their moral claim to
emissions space and, like developed regions, pursue highest possible
emission reductions. Furthermore, regions such as Latin America would
need to provide large-scale negative emissions with potential risks and
negative side effects. Our findings raise important questions of
perspectives on equity in the context of the Paris Agreement including
on the critical importance of climate finance. A failure to provide
adequate levels of financial support to compensate large developing
regions to emit less than their moral claim will put the Paris Agreement
at risk.