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Understanding and managing uncertainty and variability for wastewater monitoring beyond the pandemic: Lessons learned from the United Kingdom National COVID-19 Surveillance Programmes
  • +27
  • Matthew Wade,
  • Anna Lo Jacomo,
  • Elena Armenise,
  • Mathew Brown,
  • Joshua Bunce,
  • Graeme Cameron,
  • Zhou Fang,
  • Kata Farkas,
  • Deidre Gilpin,
  • David Graham,
  • Jasmine Grimsley,
  • Alwyn Hart,
  • Till Hoffmann,
  • Katherine Jackson,
  • David Jones,
  • Chris Lilley,
  • John McGrath,
  • Jennifer McKinley,
  • Cormac McSparron,
  • Behnam Firoozi Nejad,
  • Mario Morvan,
  • Marcos Quintela-Baluja,
  • Adrian Roberts,
  • Andrew Singer,
  • Célia Souque,
  • Vanessa Speight,
  • Chris Sweetapple,
  • Glenn Watts,
  • Andrew Weightman,
  • Barbara Kasprzyk-Hordern
Matthew Wade
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Anna Lo Jacomo
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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Elena Armenise
Environment Agency, Environment Agency
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Mathew Brown
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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Joshua Bunce
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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Graeme Cameron
Scottish EnvironmentProtection Agency, Scottish EnvironmentProtection Agency
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Zhou Fang
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland
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Kata Farkas
School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University
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Deidre Gilpin
School of Pharmacy, Queen's University Belfast, School of Pharmacy, Queen's University Belfast
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David Graham
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle University
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Jasmine Grimsley
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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Alwyn Hart
Environment Agency, Environment Agency
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Till Hoffmann
Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London
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Katherine Jackson
Environment Agency, Environment Agency
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David Jones
School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, School of Natural Sciences
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Chris Lilley
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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John McGrath
School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast
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Jennifer McKinley
School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast
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Cormac McSparron
School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast
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Behnam Firoozi Nejad
School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast
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Mario Morvan
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London
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Marcos Quintela-Baluja
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle University
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Adrian Roberts
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland
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Andrew Singer
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
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Célia Souque
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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Vanessa Speight
Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Sheffield University, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Sheffield University
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Chris Sweetapple
Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care
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Glenn Watts
Environment Agency, Environment Agency
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Andrew Weightman
Cardiff School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff School of Biosciences, Cardiff University
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Barbara Kasprzyk-Hordern
Department of Chemistry, University of Bath, Department of Chemistry, University of Bath
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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented pressure on public health resources around the world. From adversity opportunities have arisen to measure the state and dynamics of human disease at a scale not seen before. Early in the COVID-19 epidemic scientists and engineers demonstrated the use of wastewater as a medium by which the virus could be monitored both temporally and spatially. In the United Kingdom this evidence prompted the development of National wastewater surveillance programmes involving UK Government agencies academics and private companies. In terms of speed and scale the programmes have proven to be unique in its efforts to deliver measures of virus dynamics across a large proportion of the populations in all four regions of the country. This success has demonstrated that wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can be a critical component in public health protection at regional and national levels and looking beyond COVID-19 is likely to be a core tool in monitoring and informing on a range of biological and chemical markers of human health; some established (e.g. pharmaceutical usage) and some emerging (e.g. metabolites of stress). We present here a discussion of uncertainty and variation associated with surveillance of wastewater focusing on lessons-learned from the UK programmes monitoring COVID-19 but addressing the areas that can broadly be applied to WBE more generally. Through discussion and the use of case studies we highlight that sources of uncertainty and variability that can impact measurement quality and importantly interpretation of data for public health decision-making are varied and complex. While some factors remain poorly understood and require dedicated research we present approaches taken by the UK programmes to manage and mitigate the more tractable components. This work provides a platform to integrate uncertainty management through data analysis quality assurance and modelling into the inevitable expansion of WBE activities as part of One Health initiatives.
Feb 2022Published in Journal of Hazardous Materials volume 424 on pages 127456. 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.127456