22-Year magnetic solar cycle [Hale cycle] responsible for
significant underestimation of the Sun’s role in global warming but
ignored in climate science
Abstract
Reconstructions for global temperature development show an upward
oscillation for the period of the 1880s through 1980s. This oscillation
is being associated with natural variability and the temperature rise
between the 1910s and 1940s with increased solar activity. The
temperature impact of the 11-year solar cycle [Schwabe cycle] and
the physical mechanism involved are insufficiently understood. Here, for
the 22-year magnetic solar cycle [Hale cycle] a seawater surface
temperature [SST] impact is described of 0,215 °C (0,238 ± 0,05 °C
per W/m2); the derived impact for the 11-year cycle is 0,122 °C (0,135 ±
0,03 °C per W/m2). Also, a parallel development is described for
seawater surface temperature [HadSST3 dataset] and the minima of
total solar irradiance [LISIRD dataset] after a correction based on
the 22-year solar cycle polarity change. With the correction, the
combination of the positive and negative minima shows for the period
1890-1985 a high SST solar sensitivity: 1,143 ± 0,23 °C per W/m2 (with
90,5% declared variance). This implies that the Sun has caused a
warming of 1,07 °C between Maunder minimum (late 17th century) and the
most recent solar minimum year 2017 - which is well over half of the
intermediate temperature rise of approximately 1,5 °C. The results
demonstrate that the 22-year cycle forms a crucial factor required for
better understanding the Sun-temperature relation. Ignoring the 22-year
cycle leads to significant underestimation of the Sun’s influence in
climate change combined with an overestimation of the impact of
anthropogenic factors and greenhouse gases such as CO2.