Climatological Statistics of Extreme Geomagnetic Fluctuations with
Periods from 1 s to 60 min
Abstract
Extreme fluctuations in the horizontal geomagnetic field
(dBh/dt) may be generated at the Earth’s surface
by electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Using a
global database of 125 magnetometers covering several decades we present
occurrence statistics for fluctuations exceeding the
99.97th percentile (P99.97) for
both ramp changes (Rn) and the root-mean-square
(Sn) of fluctuations over periods, τ, from
1 to 60 min and describe their variation with geomagnetic latitude and
magnetic local time (MLT). Rates of exceedance are explained by
reference to the magneto-ionospheric processes dominant in different
latitude and MLT sectors, including ULF waves, interplanetary shocks,
auroral substorm currents, and travelling convection vortices. By
fitting Generalised Pareto tail distributions above
P99.97 we predict return levels (RLs) for
Rn and Sn over return
periods up to 500 years. P99.97
and RLs increase monotonically with frequency (1/τ) (with a few
exceptions at auroral latitudes) and this is well modelled by quadratic
functions whose coefficients vary smoothly with latitude. For UK
magnetometers providing 1-s cadence measurements, the analysis is
extended to cover periods from 1 to 60 seconds and empirical
Magnetotelluric Transfer functions are used to predict percentiles and
return levels of the geoelectric field over a wide frequency range
(2x10-4 to 4x10-2 Hz) assuming a
sinusoidal field fluctuation. These results help identify the principal
causes of field fluctuations leading to extreme geomagnetically induced
currents (GIC) in ground infrastructure over a range of timescales and
they inform the choice of frequency dependence to use with
dBh/dt as a GIC proxy.