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An Atmospheric Signal Lowering the Spring Predictability Barrier in Statistical ENSO Forecasts
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  • Dmitry Mukhin,
  • Andrey Gavrilov,
  • Aleksei Seleznev,
  • Maria Buyanova
Dmitry Mukhin
Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Andrey Gavrilov
Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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Aleksei Seleznev
Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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Maria Buyanova
Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Applied Physics
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Abstract

The loss of autocorrelations of tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) during late spring, also called the spring predictability barrier (SPB), is a factor that strongly limits the predictability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and especially the statistical SST-based ENSO forecasts starting from the winter-spring season. Recent studies show that Pacific atmospheric circulation anomalies in winter-spring may have a long-term impact on the summer tropical climate via the SST footprint. Here, we infer an index based on sea level pressure (SLP) data from February-March in a single area surrounding Hawaii, and show that this area is the most informative part of the large SLP pattern initiating the SST footprinting mechanism. We then construct a statistically optimal linear model of the Nino 3.4 index taking this atmospheric index as a forcing. We find that this forcing efficiently lowers the SPB and provides significant improvements of interseasonal Nino 3.4 forecasts.
28 Mar 2021Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 48 issue 6. 10.1029/2020GL091287