An Atmospheric Signal Lowering the Spring Predictability Barrier in
Statistical ENSO Forecasts
Abstract
The loss of autocorrelations of tropical sea surface temperatures (SST)
during late spring, also called the spring predictability barrier (SPB),
is a factor that strongly limits the predictability of El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), and especially the statistical SST-based ENSO
forecasts starting from the winter-spring season. Recent studies show
that Pacific atmospheric circulation anomalies in winter-spring may have
a long-term impact on the summer tropical climate via the SST footprint.
Here, we infer an index based on sea level pressure (SLP) data from
February-March in a single area surrounding Hawaii, and show that this
area is the most informative part of the large SLP pattern initiating
the SST footprinting mechanism. We then construct a statistically
optimal linear model of the Nino 3.4 index taking this atmospheric index
as a forcing. We find that this forcing efficiently lowers the SPB and
provides significant improvements of interseasonal Nino 3.4 forecasts.