Abstract
Now that many countries have set goals for reaching net zero emissions
in mid-century, it is important to clarify the role of each country in
achieving the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we evaluated
China’s role by calculating the global temperature impacts caused by
different national emission pathways toward the net zero target. Our
results showed that China’s contribution to global warming since 2005 is
0.17°C on average in 2050, with a range of 0.1°C to 0.22°C. The peak
contributions of these pathways vary from 0.1°C to 0.23°C, with the
years reached distributing between 2036 and 2065. The large difference
in peak temperatures arises from the differences in emission pathways of
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). We
further analyzed the effect of the different mix of CO2 and CH4
mitigation trajectories from China’s pathways on the global mean
temperature. We found that China’s near-term CH4 mitigation reduces the
peak temperature in the mid-century by 0.02°C whereas it plays a less
important role in determining the end-of-the-century temperature. Early
CH4 mitigation action in China is an effective way to shave the peak
temperature, further contributing to reducing the temperature overshoot
along the way toward the 1.5°C target. This further underscores the
necessity for early CO2 mitigation to achieve the long-term temperature
goal ultimately.